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casting and forging machinery industry, second five facing transition challenges
in the recently held two-branch of the council on the casting and forging machinery, casting, forging machinery branch chairman liu jiaxu said, the national long-term science and technology development planning framework brilliantly pointed out, "the manufacturing sector is the main pillar of the national economy ours is a manufacturing country in the world, but not the manufacture of power; manufacturing weak technological base, innovation is not strong; product mainly to the low-end; manufacturing process resources, energy consumption and serious pollution. "these problems in our casting and forging the industry is particularly prominent. china and germany, japan and other foreign advanced manufacturing countries compared to the various categories of equipment generally lag behind, and only a handful of exceptions, for all to see.
there are three main shortcomings
liujia xu pointed out that the "eleventh five-year" development industry analysis, inadequacies exist in three aspects.
first, but not to big but not strong. casting machinery, forging machinery traditionally considered to be simple and extensive equipment, the use of the environment is also far worse than the other machine. although there are a considerable number of high level of product manufacturing fine casting equipment, forging equipment and even complete production line, is still difficult to change its into low threshold extensive manufacturing status quo. our casting and forging machinery industry is still long-term there is basically complete specifications and varieties, but the surplus of affordable products, the status of the lack of high-end products. able to prove that in 2010, china forging machinery import and export data: imports is 3.3 times that of exports, imports cnc forging machine tool is 1.78 times of all exports. the casting machinery import and export contrasts exactly the same. this reflects a significant increase in market demand for high-end products, also reflects the domestic high-end products are present on a technical level, the output value is obviously inadequate, unable to meet customer needs in product quality, technical specifications, user services.
small and medium size, ordinary type of products we just solve whether the problem still rely on imports of high-end products;, the problem is more prominent in a large, heavy, special equipment. we made cnc machine tools domestic market share has reached 57%, but the share of data constitute the majority of low-grade cnc machine tools, high-end part of the lower proportion.
compare our own design and manufacture of large free forging hydraulic press and citic heavy industries in co-production with germany 185mn free forging hydraulic press, not just the technical indicators can not keep up, both hardware and software, there are gaps. we lack a lot of depth technical, such as the hydraulic press and forging manipulator programmable linkage technology.
second, poor innovation, technological progress lag, resource consumption, and low-value-added products. generally speaking, our casting machinery, forging machinery enterprise innovation ability. between investment in technological innovation, and expand the industrial scale, many companies are more willing to choose the latter. market demand to expand the scale of the industry can obtain short-term benefits, but not necessarily a long-term benefit. this short-term behavioral tendencies both independent impulse more local governments to promote. backward enterprise management, human and material resources that we have invested more than abroad, but the overall performance of our products, poor reliability, short life cycle, rough appearance, rely on the low-price competition. poor quality, low-tech products not to mention the added value of products. configuration fairly, the main function is basically the same domestic equipment price only germany, italy, japan and other countries the same type of product price 1/3 to 1/2; although we are unwilling, but foreign products in the accuracy, reliability, design-depth comprehensive , fine workmanship really came out on top.
sense of innovation and innovative capacity in europe and the united states, japan and other enterprises in the high-end, special products, that we can learn and learn from. due to poor business management skills, lack of talent and strategic focus of talent is not enough, we are basically in a mimic or imitate a new stage, independent innovation ability is very low, and a serious lack of originality technology.
third, the scale and light connotation, light weight hardware software, heavy "can do" light "good". in recent years, china's foundry machinery and forging machinery industry sustained rapid development, most of the industries and enterprises have made significant achievements. and with the rapid development of the most common feature is the scale of operation rapid expansion, and has become an industry enterprises development inertia. many enterprises bigger and bigger scale, but they ignore the connotation of development and construction. than in the past, we really can do a lot of equipment in the past do not, such as some large-sized, large-tonnage products, some multi-step composite products, etc.. but not many of these products really achieve sophisticated level, most of the products are merely in the initial stage of the "can do" from the "good" and "make a feature" there is a wide gap. one-sided emphasis on the expansion of manufacturing capacity hard power and soft power building technological innovation capability, market capacity, management capacity and cultural connotation to some extent ignored. indicators of heavy physical features and specifications to achieve product development, to ignore invisible value-added construction; product manufacturing, heavy physical equipment capacity building and ignore the accumulation of knowledge, technology improvement and stable quality assurance system; in order to achieve, to the neglect of the user service, attention to market development, user experience and user value-added services. all of these, it is restricting the industry in high-end products to enhance the market competitiveness of important factors.
the market is not optimistic
in 2010, heavy machine tools the market heat was the first cooling. since the second quarter of this year, the domestic machine tool market is clearly the overall decline. the statistics from the industry, even though the reasons due to inertia, the industry, the overall level of output and growth is still at a high level, but has shown a significant downward trend. the most prominent manifestations of two aspects, one finished goods inventory rise larger (industry-wide inventory of finished products to the end of august, an increase of 21%, an increase of 24% of metal cutting machine tools, forging forming machine tools increased by 34%); two the corporate new orders decreased significantly (august fell 51%, a decline of 35%). decline in demand in the domestic market at the same time, some foreign competitors launched a high-performance, low-price products, its strategic intent is for the chinese market and china's competitors. therefore, regardless of the current situation and future trends, we rely on the past development advantage will gradually disappear and weakening, which will force we must be determined to make a strategic adjustment.
from some of our current situation, forging industry enterprises, some small and medium-sized, ordinary machine tool market block immediately affected, some trouble in exports, some due to the output value of the high rate of nc mainly for the domestic product market temporarily relatively stable. but overall, industry enterprises generally face a new contract amount of decline and financial tensions.
our pre stimulating domestic demand must forward spending four trillion yuan, the uncertainties of the international market trends, the political unrest in some countries, the monetary policy taken by the united states to resolve the debt problems of the global inflation pressure increases, the state the initial success of macroeconomic regulation and control such factors, china's machine tool industry market signs of growth has slowed down after a high-speed growth in the past two years, from the beginning of this year.
industry who are concerned about whether the world economy "double dip". again the crisis, governments again the possibility of large-scale bailout has been little. dependence on exports and investment-led economic growth in china's situation has not fundamentally changed, the current growth momentum in these two areas has been a marked decline. it can be expected that the macro-economic growth will slow in the next period of time, along with the machine tool industry demand growth will be slowing down.
fall in the growth rate and adjust the structure of the whole society, to the way the role of dual factors, market demand structure is accelerating the upgrade. this trend will be making an already high-end market can not meet the demand, the industrial structure of the low-end market overcapacity contradictions become more prominent. adjust the structure to the way imminent.
face serious challenges
in the current economic situation, the industries and enterprises will face a new round of serious challenges. production costs and fees have been or will increase, mainly in the following aspects.
first, the prices of raw materials. as of august this year, the ferrous metal materials rose 11.6 percent, fuel and power rose by 11%. second, rising labor costs. the past two years china's labor remuneration is in a rising trend, further compression of corporate profits; third, the rmb appreciation is expected to remain. exchange reform since the rmb has appreciated by more than 30% since the beginning of this year may reach 4% to 5% appreciation of the rmb. face of the energy and raw material prices and interest rates, exchange rate fluctuations pressure companies to undertake large single, long single is expected to further decrease. fourth, the increase in corporate finance fees. this year, the central bank has six consecutive times to raise the deposit reserve ratio, the sme loan interest rates generally go up, money further increase the difficulty of the enterprise capital chain severely tested; occupancy increase of capital of finished products. funds used and receivables of finished goods surged, exacerbated by the difficulties in enterprise funds. according to the branch to get the information, the user postpone the delivery, or the requirements of the contract extension of situation has occurred, and even some users to terminate the contract at the loss of the deposit. these circumstances are aggravating the backlog of funds.
the automotive industry is the largest user of the machine tool industry, machine tool spending accounts for about 40% of the total spending of the machine tool industry. to some extent, the automotive industry is a barometer of the economic situation of the machine tool industry.
china's auto market has experienced ten consecutive years the average annual growth of 25%, especially after 2010 "explosive" growth this year, began to enter a new round of adjustment cycle. cumulative to august, china's auto production and sales were 11.86 million and 11.98 million, an increase of only 3% and 3.3%. according to the forecast of the automobile association, this year car sales increase of 5% over last year. the average annual growth of 25% of this data before forming a marked contrast.
in addition to the automotive industry, high-speed railway construction into the adjustment period. while also starting to show the effectiveness of state regulation of real estate. taking all factors, the economy is expected in the short term is still uncertain, the overall trend in the coming months is expected to slow down.
the participating enterprises should pay close attention to the market at the same time, to actively carry out the response plan, co-ordinate arrangements for reasonable application in the enterprise funds, capacity and other resources; technological progress, the pain on the adjustment of product structure efforts; fully play their respective corporate expertise, form of differentiating core competitiveness, fight to survive and develop in the ever-changing market conditions, opportunities.